China's 2013 tin consumption and output will rebound
SMM: according to Bloomberg News in December 18th, the International Tin Research Association (ITRI) of the industry agency said China's 2013 tin consumption and production will rebound, after the slowdown in economic growth has led to a decline in tin demand and refineries are reluctant to produce. China is the largest consumer of tin in the world.
ITRI China Chief Representative Cui Lin said in Beijing yesterday that China's tin consumption is expected to increase by 4% to 152,000 tons in 2013, and is expected to fall by 5% this year. China's Tin consumption in 2011 set a record high of 154 thousand tons, and it is expected that tin output will be in line with the historical high of 2011 next year, to 160 thousand tons, and the tin output will be reduced to 152 thousand tons this year.
St. Albans, an analyst at ITRI in England, said tin prices had jumped 22% this year, the biggest increase for the six metals on the LME. Increased demand from China and restrictions on exports from Indonesia, the main exporter, boosted tin prices, in addition to falling Chinese inventories. China consumes about 43% of the world's tin, mainly for tin cans and electronic products.
上海有色网信息科技有限公司(SMM Information & Technology Co.)分析师邬小枫表示：“预计明年锡表现将较好。” "The improvement of China's demand will play an important role in supporting the price of tin."
LME three months of tin climbed 0.2% to $23349 per ton, the highest level in eight months. This year, the consumption of tin is estimated to be less than ITRI and 147 thousand and 900 tons predicted by CRU international in August.
* * consumption prospects * * *
Cui Lin, citing its company's survey, said tin chemicals were the only tin products that had increased this year, resulting in the largest annual decline in China's Tin consumption since 2008, as the demand for welding and tin plating was reduced. China's GDP rose 7.4% in the third quarter, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2009.
Cui Lin said that tin chemicals had strong upward potential and increased tin consumption, because China was concerned about domestic consumption.
"Slowing growth in the electronics industry and electronic miniaturization will limit tin demand in the industry," she said. "The growth of tin demand in the welding industry has slowed down to 4%-5%, after 10%."
ITRI said that tin accounted for 65% of China's total consumption in 2011, while tin chemicals and tin plating accounted for 15% and 10% respectively.
* * increase in stock * * *
ITRI statistics show that the decline in demand has resulted in an increase of 17 thousand tons of tin deposits in China, the highest level in at least ten years. According to China Customs data, imports of unprocessed tin increased by 65% to 26273 tons in 1-10 months, of which 49% from Indonesia.
Cui Lin said: "a large number of arbitrage opportunities increase imports." "Demand will rebound next year and Indonesia's supply is limited, so we expect domestic stocks to slide." Arbitrage traders gain profits by buying in London and selling in Shanghai.
Indonesia has restricted the export of some minerals since May of this year, but it did not enforce the ban on the construction of processing factories. According to the regulations of the Indonesian government, the ores and vessels of these miners increase the export tax by 20%.